Monday, November 21, 2005

What Does The District 3 Race Mean For Future Political Contests?

Councilman Eric Jergensen's re- election placed him on the short list of potential Mayoral candidates. If he runs against Mayor Rocky Anderson, it may give the Mayor some problems. Councilman Jergensen has an edge that wasn't available to Frank Pignanelli. Frank Pignanelli's well- known profile as a Democratic leader helped him mobilize large numbers of Democrats. Plus, Republican sentiment toward Mayor Anderson ensured that locally involved Republicans went for Frank Pignanelli. But he missed out on a general Republican vote that could have put him over the top. He was too much of a Democrat to move large numbers of Republicans. While it's true Republicans are on a downhill slide in SLC (esp. District 3), there are still enough to swing an election. Councilman Jergensen enjoys a great reputation among Democrats that have stepped up for him twice now. He also has shown he can bring Republicans to the table. The ability to mobilize committed Democrats and Republicans in a non- affiliated municipal race is solid gold. The question is, can Councilman Jergensen turn out Democrats in a number comparable to Frank Pignanelli? If he can do that, then a good Republican turnout could make him the new mayor.

11 Comments:

Anonymous Jeff said...

Ethan, can I poach the code on your Hatch clock?

11/21/2005 10:17:00 PM  
Blogger Chris said...

I think some of the vote for EJ came from Democrats who think RA is a loon. JH's support came from true blue Dems and those who support RA. Perhaps those who would like to see female leadership in the state pushed out a chad or two for JH.

11/22/2005 06:56:00 AM  
Blogger Ethan said...

No problem, Jeff.

11/22/2005 09:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Jason said...

Do you really think that dems stepped up for Jergensen? Janneke House was a 23 year old fresh out of college who ran a 9 week campaign and took 48% of the vote, against a popular incumbant.

Numbers like that can't make Eric Jergensen too comfortable with district 3.

Also, Rocky vs. Pignanelli was a virtual landslide. There is no tweaking of the voting blocks and turnout that honestly could have put Frank "over the top" as you put it.

Personally, I don't think Rocky is going to run for reelection. He is courting too much controversy. I think he is looking to move on to something bigger, with a higher profile. I suspect the next mayoral race to be Jergensen as the Republican front man and someone like Ralph Becker as the lead Democrat.

11/22/2005 09:40:00 AM  
Blogger Ethan said...

That's not true, Janneke House was:

Mayor Anderson, State Dem. Party, County Dem. Party,

Let's face it, a clear eyed analysis from the outside would have determined that the District was hers to win.

But it didn't work out that way. Which is why District 3 is so interesting.

11/22/2005 09:45:00 AM  
Blogger Ethan said...

Also, Republicans didn't show up in Pignanelli v. Mayor Anderson.

There are still a lot of Republicans in the city. Let's face it, if they show up, it's not going to be for Mayor Anderson.

Don't count them out.

11/22/2005 09:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Jason said...

I'm not sure what you mean by "that is not true". Janneke was what? What are you refering to?

11/22/2005 10:51:00 AM  
Blogger Ethan said...

It's not true a "23 year old 9week campaign etc" won 48% of the vote.

Mayor Anderson, the County and State Party won 48% of the vote. Those were the horses the campaign hitched to. That's what brought in the votes.

It was not some great underdog grassroots effort. You know better than I the professional and experienced cards played in that campaign.

11/22/2005 02:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Jason said...

I apologize in advance if this is a rambling response but I just got out of a three hour class so my brain is not working in a very linear manner right now.

Do you really think that if Rocky, the state party etc. were just looking for a puppet or a straw man candidate to advance their neferious position that they could not find someone better than to fill the role than a 23 year old, fresh out of college etc.?

When Janneke anounced as a candidate, on the filing deadline, her campaign consisted of a handful of people including myself. As the campaign progressed more people got involved and continued to work hard. It was definatly not just Rocky, and a few elites from the party.

Second, the state dems were not actively involved in the campaign. For example, during phone banking on election day we had our volunteers using cell phones because all the state party lines were reserved for Soren's volunteers.

Could you possibly aknowledge that Janneke has some qualifications and ambitions of her own seperate from this cabal that you have imagined?
Except for Rocky, most of Janneke's instituion based support came following the primary. I don't see where the consiracy is if liberal organizations and figures choose to support the more liberal candidate.

James Evans openly supported Jergensen. By your logic we should assume that he was secretly calling the shots in Eric's campaign. Or is it more likely that just like Eric, Janneke was in charge of her own campaign? Maybe she was influenced more by some people than others but ultimately the decisions were made by her and the responsibility for those decisions rest on her shoulders.

Regardless of your negative feelings about Rocky and whoever else; the way you keep marginalizing Janneke's role in her own campaign is very insulting. You are basing your entire argument upon a few media sources, literature and a lot of speculation. You never tried to contact Janneke directly, despite several invitations to, in order to gague her as a candidate or to get her position on the issues. Instead, you chose to spin fanciful stories about Janneke being a ventriloquist dummy on Rocky's lap.

Finally, winning by that slim of a margin has to be uncomfortable for any incumbent in any race regardless of who is perceived to be calling the shots.

Please give Janneke some credit for being an intelligent and capable young woman who ran a good, if unsucessful, campaign.

11/22/2005 08:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

WRONG. First, "Mr. Preciate Cha" is a REPUBLICAN. Second, Janneke put the spotlight on a Phoney. The cucaracha is in the light now.

11/22/2005 11:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Late Breaking News!

Rocky hates the state party. Rocky hates the County Party. Rocky hates other democrats that hold office.

WTF kind of connection can you put together for the State and County Demo Party and the Mayor's office, when the mayor keeps pretending that there are no other Democrats in the state?

11/23/2005 10:24:00 AM  

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